Won't even make the super eights; how can we bring back Darren Gough; are there any more 40 year olds left to debut; can't bowl, can't bat and can't field. These were some of the comments going around as England just could not find a way to even compete in an ODI in Australia, let alone winning one. However, all that changed as they came back in an astounding manner to win 4 games in a row to win the tournament in Australia, surprising everyone. And now they are claimed to be the favorites for winning the World Cup by many and I think thats just high hopes. And through this post, I hope to convince why.
The first main reason is England's inability to deal with Vaughan. I agree that Vaughan is a necessity in the test team, but in an ODI team, his performances are there for everyone to see and he is clearly not indispensable as seen from England's victories in Australia. Granted that he is an inspirational leader and he was partly responsible for the turnaround in Gabba before breaking down again, but I still think its not worth risking a non-performing captain in such a big tournament. He has had no match practice whatsoever except for a few games in Australia and he failed with the bat in almost all of them. And I am sure it must be frustrating for Flintoff to be thrown the captaincy everytime Vaughan is injured and have it unfairly taken away as soon as he returns. I think a team needs a stable leader and this is where I think Sri Lanka got it right with Jayawardene despite the return of Atapattu.
England's second big problem is a lack of decent opening pair. I think Strauss should be restored to the top of the order, as I am sure he will hit form in the World cup. Also with Pieterson returning, there is no place in the middle order. And presumably Vaughan will be the other opener when he returns with Joyce being his backup. I really don't see either making an impact. Bell could be a useful #3 on the slow pitches but he tends to get bogged down a lot and hence could create added pressure on Pieterson and Flintoff. The middle order of Peterson, Collingwood and Flintoff is really England's strength and their progress in the tournament really depends on how quickly Pieterson can hit the straps again after recovering from injury. Collingwood once again showed how valuable he is to the team and is someone who can keep the scoreboard ticking and score a 25(30) with no one even noticing. Paul Nixon will be #7 and although he scored a few useful knocks, the jury is still out on him. That leaves Ravi Bopara as the other batting backup and he is largely untested too.
England's real big problem is their bowling attack consisting of Anderson (assuming he recovers), Plunkett, Mahmood and Panesar. I just don't see them creating a big impact by taking wickets nor are they capable of restricting teams to small totals. Nor does the backup of Jon Lewis or Dalrymple seem any better. England are probably better off playing Bopara or Dalrymple at #7 and going in with only 3 specialist bowlers and Flintoff with Collingwood and Bopara/Dalrymple sharing the 5th bowlers quota. Atleast this gives them a better chance of chasing down targets or setting large targets when batting first.
Prediction: For all reasons mentioned above, England will not definitely make the semi finals in this World cup.
Sunday, February 25, 2007
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Gilchrist to join team early, after arrival of Archie
Right on cue with my previous post, it is now learnt that Gilchrist will join the Australian team for the World cup right in time before the first warmup game. This must be a huge relief for the team and must do their chances a world of good. Congratulations to the Gilchrist's on their third baby :). I suspect this might turn out to be the last one day tournament for Gilchrist based on some of his comments late last year, and hence it will be interesting to see how he performs.
Friday, February 23, 2007
Sneak preview: Australia
Till a month ago, everyone would have expected the Aussies to continue their undefeated run of 17 games in a row in world cup games. But losing 6 of their last 7 games against England and New Zealand has changed all that for sure. From invincibles, they look like mere mortals now and with all the injuries, a team in complete shambles will be a better description.
I think Gilchrist's decision to skip the first half of the tournament is disappointing. I don't think that the world cup is the right time to take time off for personal reasons. Its ok to fly down for a couple of days in between but to join the team half way through with no match practice is not on for me. I think Aussies would have been better off giving Gilchrist a complete break for this tournament if he so desired. What happens if Haddin has an amazing run early on? Either way, its a decision that I don't entirely agree with.
Take Gilchrist out and add to it the uncertainty due to injuries surrounding Hayden and Symonds which are expected to take slightly longer to heal, Aussies are looking at playing the warm up games in the best case scenario with 12 players. This is assuming Ponting and Clark recover fully too. This might come back to haunt them eventually. How quickly Symonds recovers is the key to me because then the middle order of Ponting, Symonds, Clark and Hussey looks truly formidable. With no Gilchrist, I expect Watson to open the batting with Hayden or Haddin if Haydos does not recover. The bowling attack for the first game should in all likelihood have Tait, McGrath, Bracken and Clark/Hogg. Hodge is a more than useful batting substitute but no where in the same destructive class as Symonds. Johnson, to me, does not make the cut at this level and I would have much rather had someone like Gillespie instead.
I think the Aussies will continue to struggle to defend totals. However, with their batting lineup, they should be much better off chasing down targets. All things considered, they are definitely not invincibles any more and if they catch a couple of inspired teams on the way, they might even struggle to make the semifinals, something I am predicting to happen. Finally, I have a strong feeling that this world cup is not going to be a great swansong for McGrath, much like how the previous world cup turned out to be a disaster for another all time great fast bowler Allan Donald.
I think Gilchrist's decision to skip the first half of the tournament is disappointing. I don't think that the world cup is the right time to take time off for personal reasons. Its ok to fly down for a couple of days in between but to join the team half way through with no match practice is not on for me. I think Aussies would have been better off giving Gilchrist a complete break for this tournament if he so desired. What happens if Haddin has an amazing run early on? Either way, its a decision that I don't entirely agree with.
Take Gilchrist out and add to it the uncertainty due to injuries surrounding Hayden and Symonds which are expected to take slightly longer to heal, Aussies are looking at playing the warm up games in the best case scenario with 12 players. This is assuming Ponting and Clark recover fully too. This might come back to haunt them eventually. How quickly Symonds recovers is the key to me because then the middle order of Ponting, Symonds, Clark and Hussey looks truly formidable. With no Gilchrist, I expect Watson to open the batting with Hayden or Haddin if Haydos does not recover. The bowling attack for the first game should in all likelihood have Tait, McGrath, Bracken and Clark/Hogg. Hodge is a more than useful batting substitute but no where in the same destructive class as Symonds. Johnson, to me, does not make the cut at this level and I would have much rather had someone like Gillespie instead.
I think the Aussies will continue to struggle to defend totals. However, with their batting lineup, they should be much better off chasing down targets. All things considered, they are definitely not invincibles any more and if they catch a couple of inspired teams on the way, they might even struggle to make the semifinals, something I am predicting to happen. Finally, I have a strong feeling that this world cup is not going to be a great swansong for McGrath, much like how the previous world cup turned out to be a disaster for another all time great fast bowler Allan Donald.
Injuries galore
With about 3 weeks to go for the start of the World Cup, it might be too early to talk about this list of injuries, but the list seems to be growing and might turn out to be a big concern for some teams. The team at the top of the list has to be Australia, with the latest announcement that Brett Lee won't make the Caribbean trip. This is a big blow to the hat-trick ambitions of the Aussies, especially given the trashing they received at the hands of NZL recently, failing to defend totals in excess of 330 twice. However, I still believe Stuart Clark must have been in the team in the first place and hence this might turn out to be a blessing in disguise for them.
Other injury concerns
Australia: Ponting, Hayden, Symonds, Puppy Clarke. Clearly they have the biggest concerns right now. With Gilchrist deciding not to join the team till later (whether it is appropriate is an entirely different issue that I will discuss when talking about Australian team), they face a challenge of putting together 11 match-fit players for the warm-up games.
England: Vaughan (whats new), Pieterson, Anderson. They must be used to Vaughan being in the list and I think Vaughan should get "Tournament of the player" award if he just manages to play all games without injuries. Kevin Pieterson is the key and for the sake of cricket, I hope he recovers 'cos he is really a joy to watch. Anderson was just finding some rhythm in Australia and might be a key player too.
India: Irfan Pathan and Munaf Patel. I believe that Yuvi and Agarkar playing the last couple of games is proof they have recovered and that Sachin was just rested as a precautionary measure. I believe Irfan will come through fine in the Deodhar trophy game but if he doesn't, I hope Romesh Powar replaces him in the squad.
Pakistan: I really dont know if their problems are more to do with injuries or drug tests. I am certain that Asif and Akhtar are clearly concerned about testing positive again, which might mean a life ban since this is an ICC tournament. Asif is definitely a key bowler for them and without Asif, Akhtar and Gul, they are definitely going to struggle to make the semis.
West Indies: Sarwan. He is a key player for the Windies aspirations of winning the world cup at home. He has been out of international cricket for a while and hence it will be interesting to see how rusty he is, even if he recovers.
New Zealand: Jacob Oram. I am convinced that Oram had a huge role to play in changing NZL's fortunes around. His knock in the comeback game gave them the confidence to make big scores again and Lou Vincent's comeback made things better and the results now are there to see. So, NZL will want him up and running soon.
South Africa and Sri Lanka: Super fit or is it a case of peaking too early? :).
Stay tuned to these pages for updates as we get closer to the World Cup
Other injury concerns
Australia: Ponting, Hayden, Symonds, Puppy Clarke. Clearly they have the biggest concerns right now. With Gilchrist deciding not to join the team till later (whether it is appropriate is an entirely different issue that I will discuss when talking about Australian team), they face a challenge of putting together 11 match-fit players for the warm-up games.
England: Vaughan (whats new), Pieterson, Anderson. They must be used to Vaughan being in the list and I think Vaughan should get "Tournament of the player" award if he just manages to play all games without injuries. Kevin Pieterson is the key and for the sake of cricket, I hope he recovers 'cos he is really a joy to watch. Anderson was just finding some rhythm in Australia and might be a key player too.
India: Irfan Pathan and Munaf Patel. I believe that Yuvi and Agarkar playing the last couple of games is proof they have recovered and that Sachin was just rested as a precautionary measure. I believe Irfan will come through fine in the Deodhar trophy game but if he doesn't, I hope Romesh Powar replaces him in the squad.
Pakistan: I really dont know if their problems are more to do with injuries or drug tests. I am certain that Asif and Akhtar are clearly concerned about testing positive again, which might mean a life ban since this is an ICC tournament. Asif is definitely a key bowler for them and without Asif, Akhtar and Gul, they are definitely going to struggle to make the semis.
West Indies: Sarwan. He is a key player for the Windies aspirations of winning the world cup at home. He has been out of international cricket for a while and hence it will be interesting to see how rusty he is, even if he recovers.
New Zealand: Jacob Oram. I am convinced that Oram had a huge role to play in changing NZL's fortunes around. His knock in the comeback game gave them the confidence to make big scores again and Lou Vincent's comeback made things better and the results now are there to see. So, NZL will want him up and running soon.
South Africa and Sri Lanka: Super fit or is it a case of peaking too early? :).
Stay tuned to these pages for updates as we get closer to the World Cup
Thursday, February 22, 2007
Sneak preview: South Africa
I still have a soft corner for this team for the way their World cup campaigns have ended in general - the ridiculous rain rule in 1992 which changed 22(!3) balls required to 22(1); the unbelievable Zulu hitting and Donald run out in 1999 and the D/L calculation and Boucher's stupidity in 2003. However, they have made some significant changes to the squad after that and are the leading ODI team at least according to the ICC rankings, thanks mainly to their string of victories over India and Pakistan at home.
They have a really balanced playing 11, that played on a regular basis against Pakistan (AB Devillers, Smith, Kallis, Gibbs, Prince, Kemp, Boucher, Pollock, Hall, Ntini and Nel). Langeveldt is an able substitute for Nel, who has a propensity of breaking down often. But its the other three that raise an eyebrow or two - Bosnon, Peterson and Telemachus, despite what coach Arthur has to say. Therefore, the key to their success lies in the core playing 12 not breaking down with any injuries. As always they have a good mix of all rounders and bat very deep with Kemp at 6, Boucher at 7, Polly at 8 and Hall at 9. They should be in a position to chase down any target with that lineup. Kallis and Prince also provide good stability among hard hitting batsmen.
I am backing Shaun Pollock to come good on the slow pitches in West Indies with his teasing line and length. Ntini will remain the main wicket taking option and a lot will depend on how well Hall, Nell and Langeveldt adapt to conditions that may not be conducive to swing bowling. Kallis, Kemp and Smith are more than capable of sharing 10 overs between them. And fielding is no issue too with live wires like DeVillers and Gibbs. So, overall they make a well balanced team.
Prediction: Should make the semifinals barring any major injuries
Game to watch out for: The game against Australia in the preliminary stage. This really has to be the game of the first segment of this world cup. There is so much at stake with RSA displacing Aus from the top of the rankings and Aus having a chance to claim it back. So, don't go anywhere on the 22nd of March.
They have a really balanced playing 11, that played on a regular basis against Pakistan (AB Devillers, Smith, Kallis, Gibbs, Prince, Kemp, Boucher, Pollock, Hall, Ntini and Nel). Langeveldt is an able substitute for Nel, who has a propensity of breaking down often. But its the other three that raise an eyebrow or two - Bosnon, Peterson and Telemachus, despite what coach Arthur has to say. Therefore, the key to their success lies in the core playing 12 not breaking down with any injuries. As always they have a good mix of all rounders and bat very deep with Kemp at 6, Boucher at 7, Polly at 8 and Hall at 9. They should be in a position to chase down any target with that lineup. Kallis and Prince also provide good stability among hard hitting batsmen.
I am backing Shaun Pollock to come good on the slow pitches in West Indies with his teasing line and length. Ntini will remain the main wicket taking option and a lot will depend on how well Hall, Nell and Langeveldt adapt to conditions that may not be conducive to swing bowling. Kallis, Kemp and Smith are more than capable of sharing 10 overs between them. And fielding is no issue too with live wires like DeVillers and Gibbs. So, overall they make a well balanced team.
Prediction: Should make the semifinals barring any major injuries
Game to watch out for: The game against Australia in the preliminary stage. This really has to be the game of the first segment of this world cup. There is so much at stake with RSA displacing Aus from the top of the rankings and Aus having a chance to claim it back. So, don't go anywhere on the 22nd of March.
World Cup 2007 - A preview
This is my first attempt at a blog.. I have wanted to start this for a while now and hoping that the upcoming cricket world cup provides the necessary impetus to do so. With less than 20 days to go for the warm up games, these are exciting times for every cricket fan, especially given the recent form of super power Aussies and the drubbing they received at the hands of New Zealand and England. This is definitely going to be a closely contested world cup with no team really steamrolling through the tournament as the Aussies did last year with 11 wins. I can't wait to have the minnows out of the way and I am really hoping that we have no surprises in the super eight's unlike last year where Kenya made the semifinals. Over the next few days, I will try to provide a sneak preview into the various teams in the competition and analyze some of their strengths and weaknesses and hence their chances in the Caribbean world cup 2007. Stay posted.
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