Sneak preview: Sri Lanka and New Zealand

Before I go on to look at these two teams, the reason I have combined them into a single post is because I think one of these teams will be a semi-finalist together with Australia, South Africa and India.

Sri Lanka

This is another team that has had a pretty good run in one day internationals after the 6-1 beating they took against India in 2005. And they come into the tournament carrying some good form (despite losing the one day series in India again 1-2 without their bowling spearheads).

They have a pretty well balanced team. The batting lineup consists of Jayasuriya, Tharanga, Jayawardene, Sangakkara, Attapattu, Dilshan, Chamara Silva and Arnold. The problem areas here seem to be the lack of runs from the blade of Jayawardene and the lack of a clear role in the team for Attapattu. The former is a greater issue as no team likes to have its captain struggling for runs as it does rub off on your performance on the field. For this reason, it is very important for Sri Lanka to have Jayawardene score some runs in the warm up games (he failed again today against Scotland leaving him only one game to find some touch). Another problem of late has been the inability to deal with Attapattu. Sri Lanka did well to resist the temptation of handing Attapattu the captaincy when he came back from injury. Now, they need to find a better role for him if they plan to play him in the XI. I think the best position for him in this team is #3 with Jayawardene playing at #5. Other wise, they should just drop him from the XI all together so that they do not get totally bogged down in the middle overs.

I am convinved Sri Lanka will play 7 batsmen and 4 bowlers in the World cup with Dilshan and Jayasuriya sharing the burden of the 5th bowler. However, it may not be a bad idea to occasionally play both Malinga Bandara and Murali in the same team, in which case they may want to play an additional seamer at #6. Either way, that is the flexibility provided mainly by having Sangakkara in the team.

If the pitches turn out to be slow and sub-continentish as predicted by one and all, then they definitely have the upper hand over New Zealand. Vaas is clever bowler in the opening overs and Jayawardene needs to make sure he finishes his quota by the 35th over, maybe even bowl 10 on a trot at the start. Lasith Malinga holds the key and he was the main architect of many a victory in New Zealand. He is very difficult to pick and hence can be the main weapon for SL. He might also be their main bowler at the death with the ability to bowl fast inswinging yorkers. Murali of course will no doubt perform his role and most teams might look to play him out for 35-40 runs without conceding a wicket.

All things combined, Sri Lanka has a decently balanced squad and they can wreck havoc if the wickets turn out to be spin friendly. And I still think they will make the semifinals ahead of New Zealand and hosts West Indies, provided their skipper finds some form in time.


New Zealand

Clearly buoyed by their recent 3-0 drubbing of Australia, New Zealand remain the dark horses of the tournament (as they have been in the previous editions too). Chasing their maiden World cup triumph, this might be their best chance yet of getting there. Things turned around half way through the series in Australia when Astle retired and a couple of fresh legs in the form of Oram and Vincent joined the team and all of a sudden, they looked a completely different team. The stupidity of opening with McCullum was banished and they found some solidity at the top with Fleming, Vincent and Taylor and they are a much better team now.

The batting line up of Vincent, Fleming, Taylor (who has been in excellent form and a great find for NZL), Styris and McMillan looks pretty solid on paper. Add to it the hard-hitting lower order batsmen in Oram and McCullum and you will see why NZL will be a favorite in several predictions. The backup batsman is Fulton and he has proven himself well in his short career.

Bond and Vettori lead their bowling attack. James Franklin should start most games and I think they will be better off playing Jeetan Patel in most games, especially if the wickets are slow. If not, the toss up will be between the other seamers in the squad: Mark Gillespie, Daryl Tuffey and Mason.

Once again, if NZL can play their top XI including Bond, Oram and Styris in all games, they will definitely be a team to beat in the tournament. However, I am sure some of the injuries to these players are bound to resurface as the tournament progresses, which could cost them the semi-final place.